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Post by theactuary on Oct 10, 2009 9:43:11 GMT
3rd October 2009 a race meeting at Wolverhamptons Dunstall Park record the following race times.
1m 141y Class 4 2yo 1:49:78 5f 216y Class 6 3yo+ 1:13:34 5f 216y Class 5 2yo 1:13:67 5f 20y Class 6 2yo 1:01:54 7f 32y Class 5 3yo 1:26:56 1m 141y Class 5 3yo+ 1:46:96 1m 1f 103y Class 6 3yo 1:59:42 1m 4f 50y Class 5 3yo+ 2:38:83
Just 6 days later
5f 20y Class 5 3yo+ 1:02:49 1m 5f 194y Class 4 3yo+ 3:01:87 7f 32y Class 6 3yo+ 1:29:17 7f 32y Class 6 2yo 1:30:71 1m 141y Class 6 2yo 1:51:96 1m 1f 103y Class 5 3yo+ 2:01:13 5f 20y Class 5 3yo+ 1:02:92 5f 216y Class 5 3yo+ 1:14:28
It would be easy to assume that weather conditions have played a part and the course is running ‘Slow’ but in all my years of compiling figures I know that something has been done to the surface. From the trawling I did last night, whatever was done during this period doesn’t appear to be out in the public domain. I even wonder whether the Trainers have been informed by the Clerk of the Course. The figures look very similar to those at Lingfield where they have completely turned the surface over.
Where does this leave a Speed Handicapper?
If you create a ‘Going Allowance’ based upon these times you will elevate some very modest animals to Group 1 status with figures that they will never achieve again unless they meet identical conditions.
My view is finding winners at present at either Lingfield or Wolverhampton until the tracks settle down is likely to be pot luck. The implications on using this data is far reaching, not only due to the slow down causing condensed fields and traffic problems in running but the times being recorded corrupting form-lines and standards. Stay away, watch and wait for me.
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Post by theactuary on Oct 12, 2009 12:00:14 GMT
Again some of my posts have gone missing Some very trappy and tightly contest races today at Kempton. Those that stand out on my ratings are Freedom Fire 2.55, Daniella De Bruijn 3.25, Magic Lantern 4.00 and Sehoy 5.00. Freedom Fire coming back 2f is a slight negative but his LTO SF looks value at 5-1 given he was bumped and hampered so could well improve on that performance. Magic Latern well outclassed LTO on turf in C2 and this is more the mark. Has early speed and hoping experience will pay dividends before the penny drops on the untried. The other two I will watch with interest.
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Post by theactuary on Oct 14, 2009 9:16:27 GMT
Hopefully those that follow my blog got on Bahamian Lad 8-1 and Red Suede Shoes 5-1.
Always feel embarassed when the horses I post to a forum fail and those not posted go in. I am simply trying to post those that appear to be the cream to the forum so apologise.
Before I am banned for mentioning my blog there isno need to visit. Here are my top rated for todays cards.
As I am not particularly happy with Lingfield at present hope this will not be to embarassing
14th October 2009 Lingfield 1.30 News International Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £2,730 10 runners 1m 101.0% Trueblue Wizard 100.7% Prince Of Thebes 100.6% You´ve Been Mowed
2.00 E B F Smiths News Novice Stakes (CLASS 4)(2yo) Winner £5,181 4 runners 1m No Horses with AWT Form
2.30 News International Handicap (Div II) (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £2,730 10 runners 1m 101.1% Hip Hip Hooray 100.3% Bull Market 100.3% Baariq 100.3% Astrodonna
3.05 E B F Menzies Distribution Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,886 14 runners 7f 98.7% Lady Hetherington 96.4% Allannah Abu 95.7% Professor Bollini
3.35 Mail Newspapers Classified Claiming Stakes (Div I) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £1,706 12 runners 7f 101.5% Monashee Rock 101.2% Jeremiah 99.9% Romantic Queen
4.10 Mail Newspapers Classified Claiming Stakes (Div II) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £1,706 12 runners 7f 101.0% Dichoh 100.6% Royal Envoy 99.9% Art Market
4.45 Bedfords Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo 0-70) Winner £2,730 10 runners 1m2f 102.0% Noble Dictator 100.5% Global Conquest 99.6% Colangnik
5.15 Citipost Direct Distribution Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65) Winner £2,047 14 runners 2m 100.4% Mymateeric 99.6% Sa Nau 99.5% Star Of Pompey 99.5% Brad´s Luck
14th October 2009 Kempton 5.45 TurfTV Handicap (CLASS 7)(3yo+ 0-50) Winner £2,047 14 runners 1m4f 100.7% Mr Plod 100.7% Duneen Dream 100.6% Little Sark
6.20 Groomed To Perfection, Kia Soul Classified Stakes (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-55) Winner £2,047 14 runners 1m 100.0% Highland Starlight 99.5% Winterfell 99.1% Cake Stand
6.50 Buy A £10,000 Racing Post Bonus Yearling Maiden Stakes (CLASS 4)(2yo) Winner £3,886 13 runners 1m 100.5% Robust Wish 99.3% Dahaam 99.0% Christmas Coming
7.20 digibet Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo 0-85) Winner £4,727 14 runners 1m 101.9% Laudatory 101.1% Audemar 100.9% Sunshine Always
7.50 digibet.com Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6)(2yo) Winner £2,047 12 runners 6f 100.0% Lady Pattern 100.0% Shark Man 98.6% Theladyisatramp
8.20 digibet Casino Nursery (CLASS 6)(2yo 0-65) Winner £2,047 12 runners 6f 100.0% Pepi Royal 99.4% Tucker´s Law 99.1% Kate Skate
8.50 Levy Board Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80) Winner £4,727 14 runners 7f 102.2% Ektimaal 100.8% Secret Witness 100.6% Perfect Silence
9.20 Racing UK Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-52) Winner £2,047 12 runners 6f 100.2% Malapropism 100.0% Dilli Dancer 99.8% Zim Ho
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Post by theactuary on Oct 14, 2009 21:30:12 GMT
Played the get out of Jail Free card today. I was expecting a poor Lingfield but dissapointed with Kempton. Being positive and viewed from level stakes 5-1 and 12-1 winners over 15 races = a profit.
15th October 2009 Wolverhampton
5.30 Dine In The Horizons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap (CLASS 7)(3yo+ 0-50) Winner £2,184 13 runners 1m141y 100.9% Herbert Crescent 100.8% Gifted Heir 99.8% Gracechurch
6.00 BOS Magazine Fillies´ Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80) Winner £5,046 12 runners 5f20y 101.4% Feelin Foxy 101.3% Metal Guru 101.0% Cayman Fox
6.30 European Breeders´ Fund Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,562 13 runners 5f216y 99.9% Barlaman 99.2% I´Malwaysright 96.1% True To Form
7.00 ELBO Betting Service For Independent Bookmakers Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) Winner £5,046 4 runners 2m119y 100.7% John Forbes 99.9% Penang Princess
7.30 Enjoy The Lucky 7 Group Offer Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6)(3yo) Winner £2,388 13 runners 1m1f103y 100.8% Gaily Noble 100.7% Royal Crest 100.6% Inconspicuous Miss
8.00 Independent Bookmakers Service Elbo Launches Today Nursery (CLASS 4)(2yo 0-85) Winner £4,533 10 runners 1m141y 101.1% Sejanus 99.5% Lethal Combination 98.5% The Starboard Bow
8.30 Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £2,914 9 runners 1m1f103y 102.1% Arashi 101.8% Hucking Heat 101.7% Kildare Sun
9.00 Enjoy Ringside Entertainment After Racing Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo 0-65) Winner £2,388 12 runners 1m4f50y 102.0% Admirable Duque 101.5% Royal Keva 101.3% Supernoverre
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Post by theactuary on Oct 16, 2009 13:39:10 GMT
Actuary: Hola
Actuary: Hi, hows it going?
Actuary: not to bad yourself?
Actuary: Yup, pretty good thanks
Actuary: Hear you had a good night last night.
Actuary: Wasn't bad you know. Top rated the first 2 home in the first, 8-1 winner in the next, top rated the first two in the 3rd, 2nd @ 9-1 in the 4th, 11-4 winner in the 5th, drew a blank in the 6th. You know how it is.
Actuary: Not bad, how did you finish up?
Actuary: Oh you know, 14-1 winner in the last.
Actuary: Wow, well done, did you share this with anyone?
Actuary: Posted them to Racehorse Thoughts but I think they must have slept in.
Actuary: Perhaps your posting to the wrong Forum.
Actuary: Yeah, you may be right.
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