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Post by theactuary on Aug 6, 2009 19:53:37 GMT
No interest at all in the first 2 AW
If the tissue price of 10-1 Kingsgate Castlev1 is available must be a solid E.W. A couple of non-runners to his inside wouldn't go a miss as 9 is a bit to wide over 6f. Dynamo Dave still isnt sure if he is a sprinter or middle distance horse. LTO on the AW was running over 10f!!
Baby Josr 12-1 looks the pick of a modest bunch in the last. The trip would be questionable in better company but solid E.W. claims
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Post by theactuary on Aug 7, 2009 17:08:27 GMT
Not sure whether that was good or bad!!!
Brambleberry 1st 10-1 not after timing advertised on my blog but never expected it to be an E.W. price.
Then the fun begins with Kingsgate Castle backed from 10-1 down to 7-2 gets badly hampered and out with the washing after 2f.
Baby Josr drifts from 10-1 out to 16-1 gets badly hampered by Miss Tikitiboo and finishes like an express train to grab second.
Obviously I have made money on the day but still feel I have been robbed of a 16-1 winner.
Perhaps focusing on tomorrow's Lingfield meeting will quiet this uneasy feeling I have inside!!
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Post by theactuary on Aug 8, 2009 12:14:52 GMT
Two reasonable E.W. bets in my top rated on the AW today but neither are likely to be E.W. prices currently showing at 5-1 & 7-1 so I will bow out gracefully today and just watch with interest.
All ratings are on my blog for those interested.
Two meetings to get my teeth in to on Monday with Southwell and Wolverhampton.
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Post by theactuary on Aug 9, 2009 22:14:55 GMT
2.15 Southwell Favours Brave 89 16-1 looks a good EW bet if it can reproduce its LTO Polytrack form on the Fibresand. The furlong shorter should assist in coping with the more testing surface.
3.15 Southwell My top rated Crimson Mitre 91 12-1 lively EW chance and only C&D in the race.
3.45 Southwell Swiss Art 92 a Southwell specialist marginally top rated but would take 10-1 EW if available. Rarely out of the frame here.
4.15 Southwell Luscivious 95 is likely to go off to short to interest me. 4.45 Southwell My top rated First Blade seems to have a new lease of life with blinkers but at the current price of 5-1 to short for me.
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Post by theactuary on Aug 10, 2009 12:46:52 GMT
3.00 Wolverhampton New England 90 is more appealing with Luke Morris aboard but to short for me.
3.30 Wolverhampton top rated Dixie Bright 88 Silver Symphony 87 appear awell ahead of those thar have run on AW. Would need 10-1 to play with 4 unknown quantities in the race.
4.00 Wolverhampton not a happy hunting ground for mty top rated Ugenius 91 but a very generous EW price and the trip is more to his liking.
4.30 Wolverhampton Silcan Meydan 87 is well exposed at a short priced and I would be suprised if someone isnt going there with the knowledge they have the beating.
5.00 Wolverhampton Lytham 88 Questionable history at this track C&D was 5 years ago but good EW claims in an out of form field Lytham appears to be the exception.
5.30 Wolverhampton Snowberry Hill 88 looks well ahead on ratings but is unlikely to be at an attractive enough price to warrrant an EW bet.
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Post by theactuary on Aug 13, 2009 20:50:24 GMT
For those interested here is Nick Mordins reply to my question regarding figs for beaten horses.
Shouldn't the lengths beaten by formula be relative to the time the race was run opposed to the distance of the race?
For some reason beyond my comprehension there appears to be an unwritten rule that dictates we conform to the lbs per length applied by the official handicapper or a closely linked permutation. What I feel most uncomfortable about with this formula is the results appear to be upside down. e.g. the penalty applied to a horse beaten 1 length in a sprint is greater than the penalty applied to the horse beaten 1 length in a middle distance race but from a speed perspective the horse in the sprint is obviously travelling faster than the middle distance horse.
Dear Mark,
You are of course right. But actually in Britain this is exactly what happens nowadays because lengths are now measured by time rather than distance. The photo finish drum spins at a set speed, so it's easy to tell exactly how far behind the winner a horse finished. On the flat a length is now counted as a fifth of a second (as measured off on the photo finish drum). Over jumps 0.25 of a second is used. What this means is that in a mile race run in 1m 40 a length is longer than it is in a mile race run in 1m 35.
Beaten lengths are a vexing issue though. I am still wrestling with how to cope with the massive increase in beaten lengths caused by a very slow surface compared to a very fast one. For example times on Germany's sand track at Neuss are only about 10% slower than they are on Lingfield's Polytrack. But the average beaten lengths are three times as much. The trouble is if you adjust your speed ratings to take account of this you can end up giving a bigger speed rating to a horse that gets beat ten lengths in a mile race run in 1.40 (and therefore runs around 1m 42) than you do to a horse that won another mile race on the same card in 1m 41.
I plan on doing some research on this. I once took part in a discussion with a couple of Aussie handicappers and they called this phenomena 'drag' but I can't find any reference to this on the internet. However it's clearly real. For example, the only way I could make sense of the beaten lengths on Irish 1000 Guineas day at the Curragh was to count them as double what they should have been. The going was really slow that day and seemed to massively amplify the beaten lengths. Perhaps it also amplifies the difference in times between races. I need to look at this to try and understand it. It's not easy. It's probably related to pace more than final time. Sectional times show that jockeys go off pretty much the same speed in the early stages whatever the going. So if it's really slow and testing the horses tire more and the beaten lengths get amplified. That's my best current theory.
Regards
Nick
Although Nick's reply is less than conclusive after posting a length explanation of my theory to racing forums I am yet to find anyone who can argue their case for why they apply their variations on the example I posted. In fact I received several more variation along the same lines with a length in a 5f sprint given a numerical value of 2.5 at the lowest to a high of 4.2.
Paul Mostert Ph.D. of Equix Biomechanics found in extensive research that the approximate length of a mature thoroughbred is 9ft
1) There are 660ft in a furlong or 73.33 lengths (660 divided by 9)
In a 5 furlong race run in 60 seconds 1 length therefore equals 0.1636
60 seconds divided by 366.67 (number of lengths in 5 furlongs) = 0.1636
2) There are 660ft in a furlong or 73.33 lengths (660 divided by 9)
In a 1 mile race run in 1minute 40 seconds 1 length therefore equals 0.1705
100 seconds divided by 586.67 (number of lengths in 1 mile) = 0.1705
The above two examples are as close to fact as you can get! There is no personal interpretation or corruption. Purely based on time, IMO isn't this what speed figures should be based upon?
Referring back to Nick's reply it is interesting to note that even with his years of experience he is looking to adjust and improve his ratings and I am mindful of the fact that as I strive for perfection with my speed figures it is a labour of love which is never likely to reach a definitive conclusion.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 2, 2009 11:52:59 GMT
As most Speed Figures are retrospective thought I would list a few to note for todays meetings at Lingfield and Kempton. These horses are NOT my top rated but horses that I feel will show an much improved performance based upon a projection rating. Whether that puts them in the frame at a big price I am about to find out.
6.50 K MOOJEH 8.50 K NAMU 9.20 K KINGS RANSOM 4.50 L BOLD RING
As this form of rating is in its infancy for me I am not expecting great things more a marker in the sand but dont want to after-time.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 3, 2009 8:04:37 GMT
Bitter sweet day and disappointed for all those that backed all four or came in late after seeing the success of the first two.
Still a very positive outcome and given that I can recognised the later 2 as weaker opportunities at first glance it may be a simple case of raising the bar slightly see below the points allocated to each pre race
32 MOOJEH 1st 33-1 14 NAMU 14 KINGS RANSOM 25 BOLD RING 2nd 25-1
The results from other AW races yesterday leave me still a little cautious that conditions may have played a greater part than would be ideal. The plus being winter is around the corner and I have had success with big priced winners using this method throughout August.
Cutting to the chase and assuming 14 is to low here are those rated higher for Wolverhampton today.
6.50 W CHIEF RED CLOUD 21 6.50 W PUNCHING 15 6.50 W KINGSMAITE 15
7.50 W CRUISE CONTROL 16
Nothing as exciting as yesterday and a dilemma with 3 high projection figures in the same race.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 3, 2009 21:38:40 GMT
Based on the limited results to date a pattern appears to be emerging with those rated in the 30's winning, in the 20's making the frame, less than this out with the washing!!
Ironic that my top SF won the Chief Red Cloud race!!
No horse fits the bill at either Lingfield or Kempton tomorrow but I will continue to post any subsequent horses that meet the new criteria.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 5, 2009 8:34:05 GMT
Remembering my earlier comments that this form of rating for me is in its infancy and no doubt will need refining as I collate more data.
My figures point to Flirty 7.20 Wolverhampton currently around 50-1!!
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Post by theactuary on Sept 8, 2009 21:26:52 GMT
Being aware of the potential conflict between England v Croatia and racing from Kempton I was hoping not to find anything that would draw my attention away from the game but did!!
Island Legend 6.50 Looks a good E.W. prospect if the tissue of 12-1 is available.
Lutine Charlie 7.20 may be to short for serious interest.
Ottoman Empire 8.50 grabs my attention and the step up in trip holds no worries given his LTO performance at a far more testing Southwell.
Not my top rated and not a big enough price on the tissue but will be keeping an eye on Final Son (Could be a Flirty or a Moojeh) with a projection rating of 21 after Leelu made the frame at 20-1 today.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 10, 2009 7:09:33 GMT
Ottoman Empire didnt win in the fashion I was expecting but the win came as a welcome relief. Looking at the times of the earlier results started to concern me but finished with a bang giving me confidence that the track might be more normal tomorrow.
As speculative as betting in Class 6 2yo Claimers is, I like Lochbroom Sunset 8.05 10-1 on the tissue not so sure that will be available
Rose Row 8.35 looks an outstanding bet at 6-1 with slight reservations about the trip but a gamble I am prepared to make.
If all goes well with the first two I may be tempted once again by Ugenuis 9.05 10-1 but more as an E.W. proposition
Good Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 11, 2009 11:17:09 GMT
Weet A Suprise 6.10 looks well placed but slight reservation about the draw. Could do with a couple of non-runners lower down to frank its selection.
Really like Jadalee 6.40 and dissapointed that could not get a better price earlier.
Speculative a gain when will I learn but nothing wrong with Sejanus 7.40 last run on AW but only at an EW price which looks unlikely.
Good Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 11, 2009 21:12:33 GMT
Giving everthing a wide birth until the 7.20 Miss Minnies very impressive 3 days ago at Kempton. On my ratings the proximity of This Ones For Eddy worries me slightly. I am not one for exotic bets but possible D\F
If I was looking for an EW outsider on the card Apache Fort 7.50 fits the bill
As always Best of Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 15, 2009 19:39:42 GMT
Nothing that tempts me tomorrow at Kempton which is a pity after the poor results at Wolverhampton on Saturday.
If there was a competition for the oddity of the evening it would have to go to MyMateEric still a Maiden after 15 starts goes from 11f to 16f watch the betting Jockey\Trainer 22
As always Good Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 16, 2009 21:57:58 GMT
Interesting card at Wolvs tomorrow with some very trappy races.
Having been dissapointed with my top rated Snowberry Hill to many times I am looking to take it on with Debdene Bank 6:10
Worth A King'S 7:10 ran a cracker 12 days ago at Kempton when beaten 3.5 lengths is favoured over Air Maze
Fillys Maidens are reknown for turning up odd results but can not see past Expressive 8:10 already tested over course and distance.
If Demeanour is a decent EW price may be worth a play in the 9:10
Buena suerte mis amigos
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Post by theactuary on Sept 17, 2009 22:05:43 GMT
Dont usual play 2 in a race but I Confess 7.50 coming back to his favoured trip carries my money. I also think that Glenridding has been cleverly placed to be in the money. Hard to tell what capability Richelieu has!
Much to like about Resplendent Ace 8.50 in this company. The gamble is whether the jockey is instructed to make good use of him early over this shorter trip.
Would be interesting to know what the intentions are with First Blade 6.50 stepping up 2f after a excellent win over 5f.
Buena suerte
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Post by theactuary on Sept 18, 2009 16:55:54 GMT
The way the 8.20 has cut up Espero looks a very tempting bet. It would be foolish to ignore J.Gosden and if prices allow you to Dutch surely the winner will be one of the two!
Good Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 18, 2009 21:59:12 GMT
Rather move on than dwell on tonight!!
and its bl**dy Wolverhampton again tomorrow.
I like form where the winner of a race can strike the front 2f out and hold of all challenges. Obe Brave fits the bill in the 6.20 but would expect different tactics over this shorter trip.
The Last Don 6.50 should have no problem against his three rivals.
I may have to eat my word after the race but feel really strongly that Highland Love and Smooth As Silk ratings from their LTO over C&D is far superior to anything else in the race. Problem is I cant seperate them. The later having the better of the draw but will take them both.
Be Lucky
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Post by theactuary on Sept 21, 2009 13:28:06 GMT
Having eaten my words regarding the Saturdays 9.20 Wolvs (still scratching my head over it) I am relieved that its Kempton and not Wolvs today.
Not a fantastic card for me but a few I am interested in.
4.00 Little to pick between the two favourites Ottoman Empire and Tinaar I strongly believe they will fight out the finish. Short prices so little value but poss D/F
4.30 Thought I would bring to your attention a major hike in trip for Reel Hope!!
5.30 Might try and steal some coppers on Bomber Command has to be in the frame if an EW price is available.
Best of Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 22, 2009 18:50:35 GMT
Recent results have not been very favourable with short priced winners and bigger priced selection always finding one to good starts to weigh heavy but with as much conviction as I can muster
5:50 Rapanui Belle still a maiden and well exposed but surely the maiden tag is lost here. If the unknown quantity in the race Looby Loo is the right price may be worth a saver to redeeem your stake.
Some highly rated horses on the card Formula, Shakalaka and Ghufa take the eye on their LTO performances but of these Ghufa has the most appeal for me. It would come as no suprised if Mista Rossa ran close at a big price after a poor performance over 2 miles.
Good Luck
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Post by theactuary on Sept 23, 2009 21:44:35 GMT
A little light at the end of my tunnel and some profit with Mista Rossa today but a lot shorter than in the over night tissue (14-1)
Another tempting Maiden to start the card and if the 8-1 tissue is correct Layer Cake after is LTO effort beaten 2l is good value for me and the form has been franked.
Really like the look of Filun in the 7:00 and choose to ignore the recent turf form. Medieval Maiden would be my big priced EW.
Rainsborough coming back 1f in the 8.00 looks good value at 8-1
Be Lucky
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Post by theactuary on Sept 28, 2009 12:55:08 GMT
Looks a good card at Wolverhampton today with hopefully what appear to be good opportunities.
2:00 I have rated Blue Tango, Easterly Breeze and Zalkani within a length of each other, BT and EB over C&D but believe that Zalkani is the better value and best run this season was over C&D and should be forgiven for its last run here when coming to wide cost all chances. Blue Tango was all out LTO and must need to improve to beat Zalkani.
4:00 Golden Button and Bookiebasher Babe are my top rated and although I am opting for GB feel that BB LTO rating at Southwell has to be respected at a big price.
5:00 Mabait is my selection and top rated with Kloof rated 2.5 lengths behind. Peters Gift is also one to consider if looking for EW value.
5:30 Cheers For Thea still has room for improvement and the comments 'nearest finish' on its last run on turf and its last winning performance on the AW would suggest more to come.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 28, 2009 21:33:16 GMT
The running of Zalkani made me think that the Wolverhampton jinx would strike again but the afternoon got decidely better after Golden Button with Mabait 4-1 getting up in the shadow of the post and then the decisive victory of Cheers For Thea 11-2 topping the day of nicely.
Only two interests for me tomorrow at Southwell and both nice prices.
3.20 Persian Peril 16-1 after several poor turf efforts returns to the scene of its last crime and the jockey booking shows intent.
4.50 Monetary Fund 6-1 is by far the best value in the race and it is my belief will be to fast over this trip for Valid Point.
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Post by theactuary on Sept 30, 2009 16:40:35 GMT
I was suprised watching the re-runs on ATR that yesterdays selections became a non runner and a horse that always looked like he was going to go past with a furlong to go but just wouldnt!!
Due to the non-runner my focus was on my second rated 'Ours'. Being scrubbed along from the outside at the back of the field. Running extremely wide for almost the whole trip to avoid the kick-back and still finishing second was an astonishing ride. Well worth a watch if you havent seen the race.
Today I have two Maidens in the 6.50 One Good Emperor and 8.20 Buckie Boy. I appreciated that both races are full of unknown quantities but my ratings would suggest they are worth playing if the prices are generous enough.
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Post by theactuary on Oct 1, 2009 14:53:57 GMT
Not very exciting price wise yesterday but a small profit for the day.
I tend to shy away from horses I backed last time out that won but will make an exception today with Underworld Destiny 6.15 currently 5-1. This is A tougher ask but the strong finish LTO would suggest better to come.
Very keen on Farleigh House in the 8.15. Shorter than anticipated but 4's might appear very generous after the race.
ONLY if I am in profit after the first two will I play in the 8.45 Fillies Maiden (Double Jeopardy) where I like Pictures 8-1 back over 7f. NB K.Fallon rode the odds on fav LTO and is on Pictures today!
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Post by theactuary on Oct 3, 2009 12:06:48 GMT
Pleased that my comments on Farleigh House were vindicated in my last post but could find nothing yesterday. Although there was quantity with two meetings there was no quality for me and the only bet would have been Arty Crafty which was 4-6 at the time. Big suprise to me on viewing the results that it returned at Evens.
First race for me today is 5.45 and I am unable to split Wild Rose 11-4 and Llandovery 15-2. Given that the later was over C&D has a prefferable draw and Wild Rose LTO fig coming from Kempton being a small negative I still feel inclined to back both.
Not particularly wise to play in 2yo Sellers 7.15 but tempted by the price of Yeadon 4-1
7.45 surely has to be a nailed on win for Orpenindeed I grab evens earlier but that appears to have now gone.
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Post by theactuary on Oct 6, 2009 17:49:15 GMT
Wild Rose was my saving grace on Saturday with the abysmal running of Yeadon and Orpenindeed. How optimistic I was having secured an excellent price on the later only to watch as the horse fell in to a heap when put under pressure.
asà es la vida!
I am giving everything a swerve including Hallingdal and Sharpazmax in the 6.50 and my first interest will be in the 7.20 Blue Tango Sporting Life 14-1 The worry is, this is the first meeting with form from the newly resurfaced Lingfield which recorded very slow times on the 2nd October so it hard to ignore the likely fav Cape Marien who will set the bench mark for the accuracy of my going allowance.
8.20 Daniella De Bruijn is my second selection 3-1 Sporting Life coming back in trip after winning in above average time for a claimer at Wolvs.
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Post by theactuary on Oct 7, 2009 14:55:50 GMT
Thought I would clear this one up before anyone else points it out. Cape Marien ran at Wolvs not Lingfield so apologies. I have the date 2/10/09 etched in my brain because of the Lingfield resurfacing and forgot there were 2 meetings on the 2nd!!
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Post by theactuary on Oct 8, 2009 21:11:28 GMT
One of the best AW days for awhile coming up tomorrow. Lets hope the results mirror that sentiment.
A few bridesmaids of interest for me at Lingfield 3.30 with Hightime Heroine Mark Of Meydan and Tamasou 5-1 Sporting Life. I am taking the later as the last run to me suggested this shorter trip would be preferable.
2 at Wolverhampton in the evening will be 6.50 Stanley Goodspeed 7-2 Sporting Life looks by far the best of those with AW form
Serafinas Flight 5-1 Sporting Life ticks the boxes in the 7.20 being well drawn with a above average SF from Kempton over 1m suits 7f32y at Wolvs well.
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